Results and musings w/e 25/11/12

Well, were do I start?
This post might be a bit disjointed as I am knackered.
Our second child isn't too well so sleep has been scarce these last few days.
I even noticed a bit of OCD creeping in!!!
I keep checking that bets are placed, what's that about?!  Probably just tired.
No real complaints.
The portfolio in the main delivered.
The 2nd best week since I started the project but it did reiterate the problem of predicting earnings.

Here we go.

Market Examiner
Staked 6 points, results -6 points.
50/50 lay service
@ 10% liability + 28% ROC
I am sort of getting used to this, is this the norm?
Sportyy
No Tennis, but a very small profit on football.
Winning Racing Tips (E/W service)
+ 0.6 points
Winning Racing Systems
The first week in what seems a long time that a profit has been achieved (4 points)
CD Systems Probet
Suffering from 2nd placeitus.
-5 pts (5 pts staked).
CD Systems Bargain.
A quite simply amazing
6 pts staked.
+20 points.
Best performer of the week.
Zero Hype Banker
almost + 2.5 points from 2 points staked.
A long way required though to recover bank.
Summer of Football
........... at last a small profit of 0.72 points
Polish
-2 pts from 2 pts staked.
Hybrid Probandit
Call it flat.

Going forward I just need a bit of consistency.   The recent Football drama nd poor weather effecting the racing simply is not helping:-)

I'll aim to add more posts as the week progresses.  

It's just been hard this week with the lack of sleep!

The Weeks results & Thoughts (12-18th Nov)

Well, the first week is over using the drastically reduced portfolio that is aligned with my actual bank :-)

By the middle of the week I thought I would have to start an Avon or Betterwear round.

Positives

1. Far more enjoyable as I had little to no stress.
2. A half reasonable income at the end of the week.
3. Lots of free time (although that did not escape notice of my wife, so I was soon put to use).

Negatives/ areas for improvement

1. It's obvious that the split of the bank between the portfolio is not balanced correctly, but as of now it's not too damaging.   I'll explain in greater detail when I go through each service.

The following weekly review by service is in no particular order.

Without further ado......  (drum roll)

The Market Examiner

No bets on 3 days but still pulled 14.5 points out of the bag.

50/50 Service

Working to liability on a 10% of bank, profit of 1.46 points (nearly 15% ROC) & 33% ROC in 2 weeks

Sportyy

Sportyy I miss you:-(

Only 2 tennis bets and a few footy picks for a small profit.

It's the end of the tennis season.   

Paul Ruffy's Winning Racing Tips

Consistently delivers the bacon.

30 point bank.

just under 2 points for the week.

just over four for the last two weeks

Since the 24/09 ROC of 31%

Paul Ruffy's Winning Systems

Not good, my original combined starting bank of £2350 is now down to £1338 (started at the end of Sept).

Although to be fair to Paul, I did calculate the point bank at the lowest end, but however you look at it, ouch.

Anyway, I look at the past results + what i think of Paul and I am continuing BUT I am halving my stakes.  My goal now is to break even, if and when that happens I will review individually each of the 3 repeater systems (Favorites, NH and 2yo).

CD Systems Probet

+ 1 point (20 point bank)

CD Systems Bargain

a little over 10 points (50 point bank)

Both CD systems products are very consistent.

Zero Hype Banker

1/2 point but 5.5 points required to get the bank back to level.

On the Oche

Just shy of a 3 point loss (from a 25 point bank).

I signed up for 6 months and will ride it out and see what happens.

Summer of football.

Well, it is raining:-(

another 

5 losing from 6 selections

- 4 points (20 point bank)

I am continuing.   when you have odds near to evens you have a  50/50 chance of a losing sequence/ run of 9, and a 25% chance of a losing run of 11.   I see nothing wrong with the selections, James had an amazing run and was simply due a correction, I just wish we could have small corrections instead of this almightly punch in the face! (I am talking of the last few weeks).

Polish Football (via SBC forum)

call it break even.

Probandit.

17 points (15 point bank)

Consistently profitable.

That is it for now.  I am full of a cold and I am going to put my head down for an hour.

As we say up north, I feel as rough as a bears behind.

Overall, I covered my bills this week.

I feel that I should be more exuberant, probably the cold.

Trying to calculate earnings

As I stated from the beginning I need this to pay most, if not all my bills.
To gain some measure of reassurance I have been looking at ways to estimate over a year how much I can expect as a return.

As  very quick calculation.

I roughly calculated by service the value of stakes per week/ month/ year.
Then I took the yearly ROI
I times one with the other.

This provides a rough total of the yearly return by service.

I took 60% of this as I doubt I will get the same results.

I just about have enough.

I roughly need 10% ROI (funny how most calculations end up at 10%) on the current bank to make this work.

NOW, I look over at The Portfolio Investor for a  bit of inspiration.  I think I'll drop Rowan a quick email and ask what he's manged to pull off in terms of ROI:)

The Week So Far

To be frank it's a bit slow, but thankfully stress free, albeit sideways.

The results so far this week.

The Market Examiner
One of the main successes, from 3 betting days + 15.5 points.

50/50 lays (10% of bank liability)
Bank down 4.4%

Sportyy
No bets as you can guess with the tennis season drawing to a close I imagine we'll just be using the football bets at the weekend.
I am really missing this one.  It's my most profitable service.

Winning Racing Tips
down 0.34 points.

Winning Racing Systems
The slide continues, since I started on the 28/09 that bank is down 36%.   BUT, the past is excellent, and it's a very small time frame.  Add this to the great success of WRT and that fact that Paul Ruffy is a top chap.  I'm simply going to maintain this one.  Come on Paul:-) !!

CD Probet
down, 1.75 points.
But =23% ROC since 24/09.  You can hardly complain.

CD Bargain
+ 11.5 points
12% ROC since 24/09

ZH Hype banker
Call it flat
-29% ROC since 24/09
But another one with a proven track record.

On The Oche
Down 1.3 points.

Summer of Football
No bets

Probandit
+ 8.5 points

What does all this tell you.

Well, and this is what I am learning.

VERY LITTLE

Until we have a few months info, you cannot draw any conclusion.

What does surprise me more is that on some services, if not all, you need to take a view on several years results.

This is why I am pleased to have what I consider a diversified portfolio.

Sequences, and the wisest words

Below is a quote from Steve Jones at CD Systems

Once you have been at it for a few years you will realise the insignificance and irrelevance of short-term performance (by short-term I mean up to and including a month). That's because individual bets don't affect each other in any way - they are all completely independent of each other, so a short string of results can be good, bad even with the same quality of bets. Try spinning a coin several hundred times (it's worth it just to realise) and record results. 50/50 chance every spin but the sequences will vary wildly, there's a 50/50 chance of hitting a losing (or winning) sequence of 9 whilst spinning the coin. Those sequences will be replicated with your even money bets, so imagine how they are exaggerated with bets at higher prices. That's why short-term results are totally irrelevant in the scheme of things. If the scheme of things is right then the long-term results will be too.

http://www.cdsystems.uk.com/index.htm



Back to me, I cannot let Steve get all the wise words in.

Once I understood sequences, it became the foundation/ under pinned the daily emotional strain.  

It simply and rationally places the days trade in to context.

Resistance is Futile

As my portfolio is rather reduced and some bets are advised the previous day (easily placed on the Iphone while watching a MasterChef) I did have a bit too much time yesterday and even went back on the SBC Tipster report to look at any low cost services.  Then I stopped, what am I an addict?!

My bank is fully allocated.  

From Monday-Wed I have earned just over £80, you can win that at Bingo!

Anyway, slow and steady and I'll review on Monday once I have added up the weekly results.

I did achieve something yesterday and saved the annual £75 charge.

I cleaned out my own gutters.

There, if I add the £80 to the £75 saved that is £155:-)

If it was possible I'd probably just tot the results up once a week as doing them every day has no real benefit.  It is better to look at results on the biggest time frame possible. I might start doing them every 4 & 3 days as a compromise (Monday and a Thursday) so the task to enter them into my spreadsheet stays manageable.

All the best for now.

Listening to the masses

Well, this entry is a hard one to write and after all the years (well, not that long, 3 years) I thought I had a good grounding in betting.  
I am lucky to have found the Secret Betting Club and post this blog there for comments and expected worship, and grand accolades.
I didn't get any of those but a few carefully worded comments from some big names (in the forum world) saying that I was basically insane because I was many times leveraged.
They were all wrong in my eyes, I am pro gambler (for 8 weeks, I know it all, dam you), then I lost £2k over the weekend.  Very luckily it was bookies money, but that is actually irrelevant I still lost £2k.   But on the flip side if I was not so leveraged I probably would not have won the £2k.
However, emotionally I simply cannot take that sort of swing.
I spent most of Monday night and Tuesday actually calculating for 'real' what my bank is (money you can live with losing).  Although, even now I'd be lying if I said i'd not be pulling my hair out if I did.

Then;

I split that bank by how many services I have.
Too many
as the cost of some services removes the viability to run with a <£5k bank/ service.

1. I removed any services that cost more than £35/month
2. I favored services that I can run with a small bank (those charging circa. £20/month with a decent ROC).
3. I emailed those that were left and offered a bank transfer payment (no paypal fees) for a 12 month subscription (only UK based ones) trying to get the lowest possible rate to further lower the necessary bank.

I was left with, and will continue with.

1. The Market Examiner
2. 50/50
3. Sportyy
4. WRT
5. WRS
6. CD Systems (Bargain & Probet)
7. ZH Banker
8. Summer of football
9. Probandit
10. On The Oche

Banks range from £1000-£2500

I am now leveraged (as i could not totally escape it) by 1.35

In addition to this.   I am using an ISA pot solely as a saving plan with Equine Investments.    Not for a monthly income but as a saving plan.   It gets 2.2% in the bank, so as long as Lawrence can beat that + fees I'll be happy.

It will not generate enough monthly income unless I am very fortunate but this project is now long term viable.  

It also frees up a mass of time and stress.  

I'll see how the returns develop but my plan is to take a part time afternoon/ evening job if required.   I'll make that decision in Feb/ March'13.

You see I do listen, but it takes a bit of time.

Comments/ words of wisdom/ part time highly paid jobs offers, all appreciated:-)